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Projecting Contracts for Philadelphia Flyers’ Excessive-Profile RFAs

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In these canine days of summer season, when the thrill of the draft and free company have light and the vast majority of rosters have taken form, minor alterations and depth signings apart, the Philadelphia Flyers nonetheless have some arduous work left to be achieved.

Restricted free brokers (RFAs) Travis Konecny and Ivan Provorov have but to be signed to contract extensions. The worth level at which they’ll finally signal will go an extended option to figuring out the Flyers’ cap flexibility within the coming years.

The result will even supply an look contained in the psyche of those gamers; how they view themselves at this level of their careers and what they worth most.

RFA Travis Konecny is in want of a contract extension. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

A bridge deal for both participant means they assume extremely of themselves and are keen to roll the cube to try to money in on a giant payday on their subsequent contract. Lengthy-term offers will point out that they put a premium on monetary safety and benefit from the metropolis sufficient to tie themselves to it for the foreseeable future. It additionally exhibits simply how a lot the group values them and the way they see them transferring ahead.

Whatever the consequence, these contracts will present info relating to the way forward for the franchise. When and at what worth will these offers land?

Travis Konecny, RW

Of the 2 contracts, Konecny’s seems to be the best to undertaking. Contracts within the NHL are largely negotiated by comparables. In different phrases, brokers use the common annual worth (AAV) of contracts given to different gamers whose stat traces are comparable – like factors per sport (PPG) – and who’re utilized in comparable roles, to set a benchmark for a way a lot their consumer deserves to be paid.

As a younger scoring winger, Konecny has just a few participant comparables to border a contract vary. For instance, RFA wingers Timo Meier of the San Jose Sharks and Jakub Vrana of the Washington Capitals had been each handed extensions this offseason and provides us a good suggestion of the place Konecny’s contract will find yourself.

NameAgePPG in 2018-19AAV/TermTravis Konecny220.60?Jakub Vrana230.57$three.35 mil / 2 yearsTimo Meier220.85$6 mil / Four yearsBased on age and PPG, Konecny will land someplace within the $Four-$5 million AAV vary when in comparison with the contracts handed out to Vrana and Meier. Which aspect of that spectrum the contract leans will depend upon how a lot time period he’s keen to tackle.

If he decides to signal a bridge deal just like Vrana’s, within the two – three yr vary, his AAV will land round $three.eight to $Four.three million. If he chooses to take a four-year deal akin to the Meier contract, the value will seemingly be bumped as much as between $Four.75 to $5.three million in AAV.

Timo Meier inked a $6 million AAV contract this offseason after posting 66 factors in 78 video games final season. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Something over a four-year time period means the Flyers can be shopping for unrestricted free company years from Konecny, capping his capacity to earn extra on the open market, and thus creating one more bump in AAV. Any long-term deal will price no less than $5.6 million a yr and will even match the $6 million AAV given to Meier.

Ivan Provorov, D

Whereas Konecny has a number of comparables from this offseason alone, Provorov’s case is exclusive. Provorov’s closest comparables are the Boston Bruins’ Charlie McAvoy and the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Zach Werenski, however neither have signed extensions but.

As soon as the primary domino falls from that group, the others may have a framework to base a deal round. Don’t be shocked if negotiations along with his camp drag on till the beginning of coaching camp, and maybe even into it.

Every little thing’s cordial and amicable, however I feel till the market settles out a bit, it could be tough to maneuver ahead on Provorov.Chuck Fletcher – ‘Provorov, Konecny in contract talks with Flyers,’ NHL.com

Let’s begin with what we find out about Provorov. In his rookie season, as a 19-year-old, he confirmed a great deal of promise locking down a top-line gig by the halfway level of the season; he posted 30 factors in 82 video games whereas averaging 21:59 an evening. He additionally posted mediocre underlying numbers shedding the shot makes an attempt battle to the tune of a 46.75 Corsi For% (CF%) based on Corsica.

In his sophomore season, all of that promise culminated in a season that noticed him tie the league lead for targets by a defenseman (17 targets), tally 41 complete factors, and bump his common ice time as much as 24:09. For the season, his underlying metrics remained mediocre (47.34 CF%) however had been legitimately glorious when he performed subsequent to offensive dynamo Shayne Gostisbehere.

Lastly, final season all the pieces appeared to go unsuitable for Provorov as he struggled with bodily and psychological errors and in his personal zone, letting up high-quality possibilities in opposition to pretty usually. The one fixed was, once more, poor shot metrics, this time with a 45.40 CF%.

All-in-all, he’s had one good season, one nice season, and one fairly dangerous season, a combined bag of outcomes that makes projecting his future efficiency tough. The Flyers will level to this as leverage to maintain the value down.

Provorov’s largest promoting level at this level is the belief the Flyers’ teaching workers has put in him up to now. Final season, regardless of his struggles, he consistently matched up in opposition to the opposing crew’s high line and averaged over 25 minutes of ice time a sport.

Whether or not the Flyers consider he’s one or not, they’ve been enjoying him like a high defenseman, and he deserves to be compensated as such. On the naked minimal, he has earned himself no less than a $5.5 to $6 million AAV contract, no matter time period.

RFA Ivan Provorov’s contract can be an costly enterprise for the Flyers. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

That’s the flooring. How excessive is the ceiling? Regardless of what the numbers say, if you watch Provorov play, he seems to be like he’s not even near his ceiling.

Assuming the entrance workplace has the utmost confidence that he’ll ultimately attain that ceiling, they’ll intention to lock him down long-term in any respect prices. To signal him to the max eight-year extension, the deal should attain or eclipse $eight million AAV.

A deal this costly presents an enormous threat/reward situation for the Flyers. If he hits his ceiling, this deal turns into a discount. If he doesn’t, it turns into an albatross. That’s a advantageous line to stroll for a crew that’s spent the vast majority of the last decade pushed in opposition to the cap.

A seven-year deal could be the candy spot for this contract, trimming a yr and roughly $1 million off the AAV helps mitigate the danger on the Flyers’ aspect whereas additionally giving them what they really need, which is Provorov roaming the blue line for the foreseeable future.

Associated: Bruins Have to Keep away from Bridge Take care of McAvoy

Last Contract Predictions

It’s as much as the events concerned to dictate in what course these contracts will go, however there’s a vary that advantages either side.

If I needed to guess, I think about Konecny will ink a three-year deal at round $Four.1 million AAV, good worth for either side because the Flyers lock in a top-six winger with large upside whereas retaining his RFA rights; whereas Konecny will get the prospect to earn an enormous payday on the conclusion of the deal. Win-win.

Travis Konecny’s contract state of affairs will hopefully be resolved rapidly. (AP Photograph/Julio Cortez)

As for Provorov, I see two attainable offers that will match the wants of each events. A four-year bridge deal at $6 million AAV advantages the Flyers within the short-term and offers Provorov the prospect to cash-in later, whereas nonetheless getting paid adequately for the time he’s already put in.

I consider the Flyers will find yourself extending a long-term supply. They need him locked up for so long as attainable, however it can price them. My guess is that Provorov indicators a seven-year extension at no less than $7 million AAV, making him the anchor of the blue line for almost all of the last decade.

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